Japanese Zero
Posted in Aircraft Model by admin
on February 19, 2009
If I wanted to borrow money, why wouldn't I just borrow from Japanese banks? Their rates have been near zero p
ercent for a long time! Why would I waste my time and pay 5 or 6 percent in the US? Am I, a consumer, stupid?
I have a credit card right now that is 0% finance from a Japanese bank. Why wouldn't I have access? What is the risk? You mean if interest rates dropped below 0%? lol You have got to be kidding, right?
AARP credit card
Millions of Japanese citizens and hedge funds are doing the same thing that you are doing. It's called the "carry trade," and it works great until it doesn't.
The risk is that you have to pay back more dollars in the future than you borrowed.
Let's say you borrowed $1200 at JPY120/$1. This means you borrowed JPY144,000. So far so good. However, lets say next year the rate goes to JPY100/$1. This means that now you have to find $1440 to pay back the amount you borrowed. While you are paying 0% "interest", your debt grew by 20%, just from currency appreciation. Even if you were investing the funds at 5% or so, you are still 15% in the hole.
That's the risk.
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